Tesla Has a Larger Model Y in China That Could Boost U.S. Sales by 100,000 Units Annually. Why Isn’t It Here Yet?

San Francisco, California, Nishant Shrivastava: Tesla’s next big growth driver might not be a futuristic robotaxi or a next-generation battery. It could be a vehicle that’s already rolling off assembly lines in China. The Model Y Long Range, a stretched version of the popular crossover, is currently available in Shanghai and a handful of other markets. American buyers? They’re still waiting.

TD Cowen analyst Itay Michaeli believes this single model could add between 60,000 and 135,000 units to Tesla’s annual U.S. sales. His conservative estimate lands around 100,000 vehicles per year. That’s a meaningful number for a company whose North American sales have flattened over the past few years.

Why has Tesla’s lineup in the U.S. become so narrow? The company has shifted significant resources toward artificial intelligence and Full Self-Driving technology. That focus, combined with the discontinuation of the Model S and Model X, has left American consumers with fewer choices. Meanwhile, families are looking for something bigger. The standard Model Y, while capable, can feel tight for road trips with kids, strollers, and luggage.

The Model Y L addresses that directly. It offers more interior space, a longer driving range, and upgraded comfort features. It’s not a full-size SUV, but it’s a meaningful step in that direction. For buyers who want a Tesla but need room for five plus cargo, this variant could be the answer.

Positioning matters here. In the U.S., family-friendly three-row SUVs like the Ford Expedition, Toyota Highlander, and Rivian R1S dominate the conversation. A larger Model Y would compete in that space with Tesla’s signature performance, over-the-air software updates, and access to the Supercharger network. That combination is hard to beat.

So why hasn’t Elon Musk brought it over? He has expressed hesitation, suggesting that the vehicle doesn’t align with Tesla’s long-term vision of fully autonomous transportation. In Musk’s view, when cars drive themselves, interior dimensions become less important. But that future isn’t here yet. Most Americans still drive manually and need a vehicle that fits their daily life today.

The gap between Musk’s autonomy-focused roadmap and current consumer demand is growing. While Tesla refines its neural networks and beta software, families are making purchase decisions based on space and practicality. The Model Y L doesn’t require a redesign or a new factory. It’s already proven in China, one of the most competitive EV markets in the world. It just needs a boat ride across the Pacific.

Beyond the vehicle itself, there are broader implications for Tesla’s stock. The company’s valuation still leans heavily on vehicle sales, even as it invests in AI and robotics. A new model variant with strong demand could restore investor confidence, especially if it drives consistent quarterly growth. Michaeli maintains a $490 price target and a Buy rating, suggesting the stock is undervalued relative to its potential.

Meanwhile, the Tesla ecosystem is evolving in other ways. SpaceX’s IPO preparations have started to influence how investors view Tesla. A single line in SpaceX’s amended S-1 filing about potential equity issuance caused a 5% drop in Tesla’s stock. Speculation about a future merger between the two companies has resurfaced. While Musk denied reports of a valuation reduction, the idea of a combined entity valued at over $4 trillion has sparked debate. Some investors prefer pure-play stocks, but history shows that mergers like Dow-DuPont and CBS-Viacom often lead to upward valuation revisions.

Financial ties between the two companies are already strong. SpaceX has purchased billions of dollars in Tesla products, including Cybertrucks and Megapacks. They share supply chain infrastructure and semiconductor development plans. A merger would build on existing operational synergy.

Tesla is also pushing AI beyond the car. A partnership with Gopuff and xAI has produced Go, a Grok-powered shopping assistant that predicts customer needs using real-time behavioral data. It’s another step toward embedding intelligent systems into everyday life.

At the end of the day, Tesla’s next growth phase might not come from reinventing the wheel. It could come from recognizing what already works. The Model Y L is a real vehicle with a proven track record. It’s not a concept or a prototype. It’s sitting in showrooms in China right now. All it needs is a transatlantic voyage. If Tesla brings it to the U.S., it could do more than boost sales. It could reshape what an American family car looks like in the electric age.